The Non-Fossil/Fossil Fuel Mexican Energy Investment Policy Case : an Alternative System Dynamics Goal Seeking Planning Model

There are increasing concerns in México regarding CO2 emissions, due to the use of fossil fuel based electric generation. Recently, several laws have been passed with the objective of increase the non-fossil participation in the energy portfolio mix. Although several objectives have been established, these would be hard to achieve if investments should continue to be directed mainly to fossil fuel technologies. This article presents a system dynamics decision support model, as an alternative method to the traditional modelling approaches. The model is used to assess the generation capacity requirements and to evaluate them in several simulated scenarios. Keywords: Non-fossil electricity generation capacity expansion, Mexico, scenario simulation model, system dynamics.